Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
